U.S. Offshore Wind Caught in a Political Tempest — Will It Affect You?
When the United States was poised to become the next major growth engine for offshore wind, few expected that a political reversal could so abruptly halt its momentum. To help explain what’s going on “over there”, Managing Director Kristian Ascanius Jacobsen at the Danish-based consultancy Green Ducklings – a member of Norwegian Offshore Wind – provides us some insight.
Since returning to office in January, President Donald Trump has made good on campaign promises to “stop the windmills,” issuing executive orders that suspend new leasing rounds and freeze several projects already under development.
For the global offshore wind industry — and particularly Norwegian and European developers and suppliers — the question now is simple but pressing: Is it safe to invest (time and capital) in the U.S.?
And if the American market stalls, will the shockwaves reach Europe’s own offshore ambitions?
From Promise to Paralysis
Only months ago, the U.S. offshore wind sector stood at a tipping point between promise and performance. Commercial projects such as Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork Wind had delivered first power. Major developers — Ørsted, Equinor, RWE, Shell — were scaling up supply chains and port infrastructure.
Then came the policy whiplash. On January 21, 2025, the White House issued a memorandum withdrawing all federal waters from new leasing and ordering a review of existing permits. The move stunned developers and investors alike. Projects nearing completion were suddenly placed under “review”; new auctions were suspended indefinitely.
It’s a crossroads moment.
Kristian Ascanius Jacobsen, Managing Director at Green Ducklings
«Technically and commercially, the U.S. industry has made real headway — the first commercial parks are operating, and several are under construction. But politically and regulatorily, the sector is under heavy pressure and partly put on pause by federal decisions.»
According to Jacobsen, projects that already hold permits are doing everything possible to keep working. «Those with all approvals in place are pressing ahead; others have been frozen mid-process. In practice, new license and permitting rounds have stopped completely while the administration conducts its ‘review.’»
Legal Lifelines — and Their Limits
In September, the industry scored a legal victory. A federal judge lifted Trump’s stop-work order on Ørsted’s nearly finished Revolution Wind project between Rhode Island and Connecticut. The ruling declared the administration’s halt “unfounded”, allowing construction to resume.
The decision sparked optimism that courts might curb executive overreach. Yet Jacobsen cautions against reading too much into one case.
Court rulings in favor of developers are important — they may set precedent that limits how far an administration can reverse already-approved projects. But a single win doesn’t overturn the broader political measures, such as the withdrawal of leasing areas. Ørsted’s case protects existing projects more than it signals a full market turnaround.
In other words: the lights may come back on for a few turbines, but the broader grid of opportunity remains disconnected.
Federal Versus State Power — and the Broken “Coexistence” Principle
One reason the situation has become so complex is the dual-layered governance of U.S. offshore wind. States like New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts have set aggressive offshore wind targets and run their own procurement processes. Yet the seabed itself is federally controlled through BOEM (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management).
Jacobsen explains that the system once relied on a kind of tacit coexistence: «When a state had decided it wanted offshore wind, the federal agency facilitated leasing of seabed areas, and developers would spend millions to mature their projects — confident that once approvals were secured, construction could begin.»
That principle has now been shattered. «Trump’s intervention from the federal level has completely overridden this coexistence,” says Jacobsen. “It creates enormous headaches for the projects — and for the investors behind them.»
Who Dares to Fight Back?
Litigation has become the new battleground. «The big question,» Jacobsen asks, «is whether actors dare not to challenge Trump.»
So far, many have. «More than twenty states, the District of Columbia, several industrial developers like Ørsted and Equinor, and numerous environmental and coastal-economic groups have filed or announced lawsuits,» he says. «There’s a significant coalition pushing back — particularly in states that see economic and energy-policy benefits from offshore wind.»
Smaller firms, however, are more cautious. «For them, regulatory risk can be existential. Many are waiting it out.»
Political Polarisation and Public Perception
Inside the industry and at state level, Jacobsen describes the “noise level” as high. «Political debate, media attention and multiple lawsuits have made offshore wind a regional hot topic,» he says.
The issue sharply divides communities. Fishing interests, some conservative local governments, and coastal residents oppose turbines offshore. Environmental and labor groups, port authorities, and renewable developers defend them.
Nationally, however, the conversation is muted. «Since June 2025, I found only three CNN articles mentioning ‘offshore wind,’» Jacobsen notes. «It’s not among America’s top 20 hot topics. Gaza, Congress, hurricanes, and domestic politics dominate instead.»
That relative silence matters: it allows sweeping federal actions to proceed without major public backlash — while still rattling the investor community worldwide.
A Political Win for Trump — but at What Cost?
Why target offshore wind at all? For Trump, the calculation appears political and symbolic.
«Resistance to offshore wind can be popular in some core voter groups,» Jacobsen observes.
Fisheries, conservative coastal districts, local opposition — those audiences respond well to the ‘anti-windmill’ narrative. And Trump has a clear agenda: to stop the offshore wind industry, or anything that has three blades and produces green electrons.
Yet dismantling the sector entirely may prove impossible. «Legally and practically, you can’t erase everything,» Jacobsen explains. «Approved projects and contracts are protected by law, and courts are watching closely. Total eradication would be extremely costly and difficult.»
Still, the chilling effect is undeniable. Every uncertain permit, every halted auction, every lawsuit sends a signal to global investors that the U.S. energy transition is not a one-way street.
Investor Confidence: All-Time Low — but Selective Resilience
«Investor confidence in large U.S. infrastructure projects — including offshore wind — is at an all-time low,» Jacobsen says bluntly.
The reasons go beyond politics: high interest rates, inflation in supply chains, and global cost escalation after COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have all squeezed margins. But Trump’s intervention added a uniquely American risk premium.
«Short term, we see capital adjustments — rescue investments, renegotiations in major European developers’ portfolios,» he explains. «At the same time, there’s still interest in long-term opportunities: coastal power markets, port infrastructure, supply-chain capacity. The result is more cautious capital and deeper due diligence, but not full-scale flight. Some investors step back temporarily, while others — strategic, state-backed, or high-risk funds — still see opportunity.»
Jacobsen believes this turmoil could even have a cleansing effect. «Globally, the offshore wind market has struggled with flawed auction models and unrealistic pricing. At Green Ducklings, we are optimistic that this reset now under way — painful as it is — might restore healthier fundamentals and rebuild investor confidence through solid, sustainable projects.»
Canada: The Quiet Beneficiary
While the U.S. reviews, pauses, and litigates, Canada is quietly advancing.
«Canada is in an earlier but accelerating phase,» says Jacobsen. «Federal and provincial authorities — especially Nova Scotia — have increased political support and policy development for offshore wind. They’re still behind the U.S. in installed capacity, but moving faster from planning to actual leasing and development.»
In contrast to Washington’s unpredictability, Ottawa’s tone is stable and pragmatic. That alone is attracting attention. «Investors and developers seek predictability,» Jacobsen notes. «If Canada establishes clear regulations, supports ports and grids, and offers competitive frameworks, it can draw capital and supply-chain activity that might otherwise have gone to the U.S.»
Astrid Green, organizing Norwegian Offshore Winds US & Canada working group, confirms that shift:
As Canada advances its offshore wind planning, we’re seeing a clear uptick in interest from our members to engage and explore new opportunities in the Canadian market. While the U.S. sector is taking time to navigate evolving market and policy conditions, many are now looking to Canada as a complementary area of growth and collaboration in offshore wind.
Astrid Green, Business Development Manager at Norwegian Offshore Wind
Norwegian Offshore Wind has already announced a series of webinars and visits to Canadian partners in late 2025. The country aims to award its first leases off Nova Scotia by next year, targeting 5 GW of capacity by 2030.
To stay updated, join the US & Canada working group.
Could the Turmoil Spread to Europe?
For European and Norwegian stakeholders, the U.S. situation raises broader questions: Will American uncertainty spill over into global financing and supply chains?
Green Ducklings Jacobsen believes the risk is limited but real. «Europe’s offshore wind market is mature and regulated under more stable frameworks. But global capital markets are interconnected. If U.S. investors price in higher political risk, financing costs can rise across the sector.»
Moreover, U.S. setbacks could indirectly tighten supply chains. «When major developers like Ørsted or Equinor delay projects in one region, they may reallocate resources to others,» he notes. «That can cause temporary capacity imbalances — ship availability, turbine orders, component contracts — affecting Europe too.»
On the flip side, the slowdown may free up vessels, installation crews and manufacturing capacity, lowering prices in the short term for European projects.
For Norwegian suppliers, the message is mixed. The U.S. still represents a huge long-term opportunity — if, and when, the political tide turns. But for now, Canada and Europe look like safer harbors.
A Calculated Pause — or a Lost Decade?
Whether Trump’s actions mark a temporary pause or a lasting retreat will depend on three interlocking forces: the courts, the states, and the investors.
If judicial rulings continue to favor developers, the administration’s reach may be limited. If enough states maintain procurement commitments and litigate aggressively, projects could resume under legal protection. But if investor confidence remains shaken, the pipeline could dry up for years, regardless of policy shifts.
For Jacobsen the outcome is still open. «There’s a significant coalition challenging federal decisions,» he says. «But at the same time, the administrative freeze has already delayed projects by many months. In an industry measured in multi-billion-dollar timelines, every delay has compound effects.»
He emphasizes the importance of predictability: «Investors can live with slow permits, but not with reversals after approval. Once that trust is broken, it takes years to rebuild.»
What Comes Next?
The coming year will bring several decisive moments:
- Court rulings on halted U.S. projects will clarify how much protection developers have against political interference.
- BOEM’s internal review — due mid-2026 — could reopen or permanently close key Atlantic and Gulf leasing zones.
- Canadian leasing rounds are expected in 2025–26, setting a new benchmark for regional stability.
- European auctions (notably in Norway, the UK, and Germany) will test whether capital constrained in the U.S. finds new life across the Atlantic.
For now, Trump’s administration shows no sign of softening its stance. Speaking at a rally in Virginia Beach in September, the president declared that offshore wind “kills whales and jobs.” But the global energy system may not wait for Washington’s political winds to change.
An Industry Tested — But Not Broken
Despite the uncertainty, few experts believe the U.S. offshore wind dream is dead. The technology, the ports, the workforce, and the climate imperatives remain. What has changed is the timeline — and the trust.
Jacobsen sums it up succinctly:
Trump has succeeded in halting the offshore wind industry — for now. But he hasn’t killed it. Legal, commercial and international forces are too strong. The real question is how long it will take to rebuild predictability.
For European players — especially in Norway — that assessment rings true. The U.S. remains a market of enormous potential, but for now, caution and diversification are the prudent course. Meanwhile, Canada’s east coast may become the next frontier where Norwegian know-how and capital can find safer footing.
The offshore wind industry, by its very nature, knows how to handle turbulence. But as current events show, the hardest gusts may not come from the sea — they come from politics.
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