2026 forecast: signs of a steady tailwind

The key point is that the pipeline hasn’t disappeared. As Jamie Bernthal-Hooker, Research Manager at TGS | 4C, reminds us: “It’s important to note that there is still a pipeline for offshore wind.” While TGS | 4C revised its short-term forecast downwards, there is still international commitment to an energy mix that includes offshore wind. Increasingly, floating wind is playing a big part in that. 

That perspective captures the mood as we head into January. The “advantage” of a bumpy year is that postponed leasing rounds, delayed offtake processes, and stalled approvals now line up ahead of us. For an industry that thrives on long-term visibility, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with plenty to watch — and much to look forward to. (Fingers crossed!)

A bumpy year — but not a broken market

Internationally, 2025 tested offshore wind’s resilience. Several European tenders closed without bids, developers grew more cautious, and political uncertainty returned with force in the US. President Trump’s late-year decision to halt offshore wind projects — even those close to completion — underscored that risk.

Yet the year also delivered important bright spots. Poland awarded its first offshore wind CfDs, Norway accelerated the timeline for Utsira Nord, Enova launched new calls for small-scale projects, Canada emerged as a market full of promise, and floating wind gained further political and industrial backing from Asia to Europe.

Crucially, several reports towards year-end pointed in the same direction: offshore wind remains central to future energy systems, and governments are actively adjusting frameworks to make projects investable again.

Leasing rounds: postponed, not cancelled

The week before Christmas, TGS | 4C released a new global Market Overview Report. According to the report, around 20.1 GW of offshore wind capacity could be awarded through leasing rounds in 2026 — slightly more than in 2025, largely because activity was pushed back.

Several markets stand out as potential highlights:

• France: Results from the AO9 tender will be closely watched. With up to 2 GW of floating wind, this round could become a landmark moment for commercial-scale floating projects in Europe.
• Germany: Revised auction rules and a pre-examined site auction expected in the first half of the year will signal whether redesigned frameworks can restore developer confidence.
• UK: Although the total budget for AR7 came out as disappointing compared to expectations, 14 January — when results are expected — should be marked in the calendar for every offshore wind enthusiast.

Bernthal-Hooker is also looking across the ocean. “We’re also looking out for the results of Canada’s first offshore wind auction. The call for information on four areas off Nova Scotia (totalling up to 5 GW) closes in January, and bidding will open in the following months. The US market has changed dramatically in the last year, and what happens in Canada will tell the world a lot about North American offshore wind in 2026.”

And looking east, Taiwan is worth following:

“Later in the year, we are expecting the delayed Round 3-3 in Taiwan, though this could open as soon as Q1. This round could offer 3.9 GW if it includes the capacity cancelled this year, helping to keep Taiwan on track for its targets, and alongside its floating demonstration scheme, it will make a big contribution to the Asia-Pacific pipeline.”

Floating wind features prominently across these markets, underlining its growing role as shallow-water sites become scarcer.

From weak 2025 numbers to a stronger 2026 outlook

The contrast between 2025 and what may come next is stark. Only 17.2 GW of site awards were secured in 2025, far below the 75 GW annual average seen between 2022 and 2024. “In 2026, around 20 GW could be leased via scheduled and ongoing auctions, some of which have been pushed back from 2025,” says Bernthal-Hooker.

Offtake was even more subdued in 2025, with just 6.5 GW awarded. “This reflects increased caution among developers and several processes being delayed,” says Bernthal-Hooker, pointing out that “more than half of it came from Poland’s December CfD auction. The success of two-sided contracts for difference here is significant. Some of the jarring results — for example, Germany and the Netherlands receiving zero bids — have prompted governments to rethink auction frameworks, and we could see higher award rates in 2026.”

May we guess that two-sided contracts for difference will become the default?

If revised frameworks succeed and delayed processes move forward, Bernthal-Hooker expects a clear rebound. Up to 17.6 GW of offtake could be awarded in 2026 — below the 2024 peak, but well above 2025 levels.

Investment decisions and consents on the rise

Progress is also expected further down the project pipeline. Final investment decisions in 2025 totalled around 6.5 GW, almost entirely in Europe. For 2026, forecasts point to nearly 11.5 GW reaching FID, with around 7 GW in Europe and more than 4 GW in Asia-Pacific as projects mature.

Construction approvals tell a similar story. After a relatively slow year in 2025, with just over 17 GW approved globally, nearly 27 GW could achieve final consent in 2026 — more than 25 GW of that in Europe.

Europe resets

Europe enters the year at a strategic crossroads. With reduced activity levels across the project life cycle, developers and suppliers have been forced into reorganisations and staff layoffs. A wave of stalled or unsuccessful tenders has accelerated a shift away from zero-subsidy and negative-bidding models. And as the industry turns the page, challenges remain. Costs are still high, supply chains are tight, and political risk has not disappeared.

But the direction of travel is clearer than it was a year ago. For offshore wind, 2026 is shaping up not just as a recovery year — but as a test of whether lessons learned in a bumpy 2025 can translate into smarter frameworks, stronger pipelines, and renewed momentum.